OTT Destiny results

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Contrarius
Posts: 440
Joined: Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:35 pm

OTT Destiny results

Post by Contrarius »

I’m trying to like these rules, I really am. But when my entire brigade assault turns to dung as a result of a random event I begin to doubt them.

So, the first French musket volley at my Brits, they roll a double six. Not only is that a devastating 4 casualties + a Discipline Test, but they get a Destiny roll, which is a 10 = enemy Brigadier gets a stray howitzer shell through his gut — entire brigade falters!

Well, I’m gutted (or rather my Brigadier is). Problem is, the Brigade would actually have faltered on a 2 as well, after another random event involving disabling of the enemy brigadier. So that’s 2, 10, 11 and 12. Dusting off my probability theory, I make that a 7/36 chance, i.e. nearly 20%!

Problem 1. The French don’t even have any artillery on the field; nor do the Brits. Ok, so it might have been a stray musket ball. Same difference.

Problem 2. Why is a Brigadier eviscerated on 1 in 5 of all random events? Why not a battalion colonel? Why not an ADC? Why is it not the Brigadier’s horse — resulting in a temporary kerfuffle, but no long-lasting game-changing event?

It’s just too much. Surely, per the Lardy philosophy in Sharp Practice and Chain of Command, random events should not have the capacity to change the entire course of the game?

I’m sad to say, this rather wrecked my evening game and left a bad taste in the mouth of all concerned.

I’m sorry, but I’m rather tempted to rewrite the entire “Destiny” section.

Archdukek
Posts: 5060
Joined: Tue Sep 03, 2013 11:49 pm
Location: Linlithgow, West Lothian, UK

Re: OTT Destiny results

Post by Archdukek »

As Polish Lancer says a Destiny Roll does not happen often, indeed I’ve played several games when there were none, but when it does it can have an impact as you found. However, in calculating probabilities you need to take account of the fact that there is only a 1/36 chance of rolling a double 6 in the first place so the probability of your Brigadier being eviscerated as the consequence of a volley is less than 1%.

As to comparisons with Sharp Practice and Chain of Command random events, those rules are written by a different author with a different approach. “General D’Armee” is not a Lardy/TFL ruleset. It’s published under the Reisswitz Press imprint to make that distinction clear.

John

DCRBrown
Posts: 504
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:04 pm

Re: OTT Destiny results

Post by DCRBrown »

C,

The Destiny rule is designed to be frustrating for the player on the receiving end.

However, may I suggest that you look at this result from the other perspective?

First the opponent has to roll a Double Six, the odds of doing so being about 3%, which is low to say the least. But also the Double Six needs to be rolled in either Charges, Volley or Artillery Fire, so restricting the occurance further.

Then on the immediate following roll there is over an 80% chance that your general will not be "impacted" upon. Again the odds are low.

Put the two odds together and as John says, it's an unlucky general indeed who meets his fate in this manner.


DB

dakkadakka
Posts: 59
Joined: Mon Jul 29, 2019 4:44 pm

Re: OTT Destiny results

Post by dakkadakka »

There are instances of this type of event happening throughout history. Advance the clock about 50 years and take a look at the first day of Gettysburg. John Reynolds, Commander of the Union I Corps takes a fatal bullet from a sharpshooter. Not long thereafter, the I Corps routs back to Cemetery Hill. That is pretty much exactly what happened in your battle.

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