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50mm v 75mm area fire

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:25 pm
by kula66
A quick question regarding Area fire: a 50mm gun gets 1D6 and a 75mm gets 2D6. Roll a one and you miss. Now stats isn't my thing, but doesn't that make a 75 more likely to miss than a 50? More chance of rolling a 1 on 2 dice.

Thanks,
James

Re: 50mm v 75mm area fire

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:23 pm
by Archdukek
Yes it does, but equally it increases the chance of the 75mm rolling a 6 and possibly getting a great shot on the Fire Table. And a 75mm will on average do more damage when it does hit.

John

Re: 50mm v 75mm area fire

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:58 pm
by kula66
That's true, thanks John - just seems like a very small difference for a shell thats possibly 3 x the weight. Although I guess being a lighter shell, you may be able to fire more at the target in a turn.

James

Re: 50mm v 75mm area fire

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:18 pm
by Derek H
And with more rounds going towards the target you'd be less likely to miss completely :-)

Re: 50mm v 75mm area fire

Posted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 8:49 pm
by kula66
You actually have more chance of missing with a 75mm than getting a great shot, because if you roll a 6 and a 1 or a 1 and 6, thats a miss but a 1 and an anything is a miss too :(

Re: 50mm v 75mm area fire

Posted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:38 pm
by Archdukek
True, but the chances of getting a great shot are still higher if you are rolling 2 dice rather than 1.

Re: 50mm v 75mm area fire

Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:47 am
by kula66
I could be wrong, but only just ...
50mm
Miss 16.67%
Hit 66.67%
Crit 16.67%

75mm
Miss 30.56%
Hit 55.56%
Crit 19.23%

And the chances of an out-right miss are much higher.

Re: 50mm v 75mm area fire

Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:49 pm
by cornelius
We gave up using that table a long time ago as the probabilities seem wild. We roll the first D6 separately and that determines miss/great shot. Works for us.

Re: 50mm v 75mm area fire

Posted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:38 pm
by kula66
Interesting ... so, you use a single dice and bigger shells are more accurate?

Re: 50mm v 75mm area fire

Posted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:50 pm
by cornelius
We throw the first die to see if it is a 6 or a 1, and then the rest (if not a 1). That way all calibres are equally accurate. Now you may argue that (a) they are equally accurate but the chance of a miss or a good shot are different from 1 in 6, or (b) you may argue that a good shot is less/more likely that a miss, or (c) that accuracy DOES vary with calibre: whatever, just adjust the mechanism to match your belief. On point (c) though I think if you do the stats for the table the probabilities swing around - it is not a linear progression of accuracy vs calibre.